행정학 박사 학위논문

한반도 통일을 위한 주변국

전략적 동맹관계

행정학과 일반행정학전공

박 한 길

지도교수 배 일 섭

2014년 6월

대구대학교 대학원

한반도 통일을 위한 주변국

전략적 동맹관계

이 논문을 행정학박사 학위논문으로 제출함.

행정학과 일반행정학전공

박 한 길

지도교수 배 일 섭

박한길의 행정학박사 학위논문을 인준함.

2014년 6월

심사위원장 조덕호 교수 (인)

심 사 위 원 송건섭 교수 (인)

심 사 위 원 이승철 교수 (인)

심 사 위 원 조영숙 교수 (인)

심 사 위 원 배일섭 교수 (인)

대구대학교 대학원

목  차

Ⅰ. 서 론 ·································································································· 1

연구목적 ··························································································1

연구범위와 방법 ·············································································· 4

1) 연구 범위

2) 연구 방법

선행연구 검토 ·················································································· 6

Ⅱ. . 이론적 고찰 ····················································································· 9

1. 통일이론 ·························································································· 9

1) 통일의 의미

2) 한반도 통일의 당위성

3) 남북간 통일 문제의 올바른 인식

4) 통일을 위한 이론적 배경

2. 동맹이론 ························································································· 17

1) 동맹의 정의

2) 동맹 형성에 관한 이론

3) 동맹 유지·붕괴에 관한 이론

3. 한반도 통일에  대한 주변국 입장······················································ 25

1) 미국

2) 중국

3) 일본

Ⅲ  . 연구설계 및 변수설정 ································································ 34

1. 연구설계 ························································································ 34

1) 평가지표

2) 연구모델 정립

2. 측정지표 ························································································ 36

1) 지표의 개념 및 필요성

2) 지표체계 및 선정지표

3. 경로설명 ························································································· 41

1) 통일주변경로

2) 통일발전경로

3) 통일기대경로

4. 연구가설의 설정 ··········································································· 40

Ⅳ  . 연구분석 ························································································ 43

1. 설문지 조사 개요 및 구성··························································· 43

1) 조사의 개요

2) 설문지의 구성

2. 기초통계분석 ················································································· 47

1) 응답자 일반사항

2) 한반도 주변국 전략적 동맹사항

3. 측정변수분석 ················································································· 63

1) 신뢰성 분석

2) 타당성 분석

4. 가설검증 ························································································ 6 9

Ⅴ . 통일발전의 결정요인과 전략적 통일방안 ······························76

1. 통일발전 결정요인 ····································································· 76

2. 통일을 위한 전략적 동맹방법 ·············································· 77

3. 한반도 통일대비 역량확충 ······················································· 8 3

Ⅵ . 결론 ······························································································· 88

1. 연구결과 및 시사점 ·································································· 88

2. 연구의 한계점과 향후 연구방향 ············································ 89

□ 참고문헌 ·························································································· 91

1. 국내문헌 ······················································································ 91

2. 국외문헌 ······················································································ 92

□ Abstract ························································································· 95

□ 부록 ·································································································· 96

부록 Ⅰ: 설문지 ·················································································· 96

부록 Ⅱ: 기초자료 분석 ·································································  103

표 목 차

표 Ⅱ-1. 주변 동맹 관계의 구성 체계 ··········································· 19

표 Ⅱ-2. IAU 발전 구성 체계 ···························································· 30

표 Ⅱ-3. IAU 기대 구성 체계 ···························································· 30

표 Ⅲ-4. 변수 선택에 관한 선행연구 및 지표 ································ 31

표 Ⅳ-1. 응답자의 인적사항(1) ························································· 46

표 Ⅳ-2. 응답자의 인적사항(2) ························································· 47

표 Ⅳ-3. 응답자 특성별 통일대비 중요 동맹 차이 ······················ 48

표 Ⅳ-4. 응답자 특성별 통일위한 동맹우선순위 차이 ················ 49

표 Ⅳ-5. 응답자 특성별 동맹우선순위 차이 ··································· 50

표 Ⅳ-6. 응답자 특성별 동맹결속 필요 동맹 차이························ 51

표 Ⅳ-7. 응답자 특성별 동맹불필요 및 재검토 동맹 차이 ······· 52

표 Ⅳ-8. 응답자 특성별 통일대비 정치, 사회, 경제 준비 차이·· 53

표 Ⅳ-9. 응답자 특성별 통일준비 미흡 분야 차이 ······················· 54

표 Ⅳ-10. 응답자 특성별 북한과의 관계 차이 ······························· 55

표 Ⅳ-11. 응답자 특성별 통일가능시기 차이 ································· 56

표 Ⅳ-12. 신뢰성 검증 결과 ································································ 58

표 Ⅳ-13. KMO와 Bartlett 검정 ························································ 59

표 Ⅳ-14. 표본의 크기에 따른 유의한 요인적재량 수준 ·············· 61

그 림 목 차

그림 Ⅲ-1. 연구모델  ··········································································· 11

그림 Ⅳ-1. 스크리차트(Scree chart) ················································ 60

그림 Ⅳ-2. 인과관계 모형구조··························································· 60

그림 Ⅳ-3. 최종 인과관계 모형구조················································· 60

요  약